Abstract
Over 50 years ago, Professor Edwards Lorenz of MIT illustrated the sensitive dependence of numerical solutions on initial conditions (ICs), known as chaos or a butterfly effect of the first kind. The equations he used have been referred to as the three-dimensional Lorenz model (3DLM). While the 3DLM has been extensively examined to illustrate the role of nonlinearity in producing chaos, higher-dimensional Lorenz models have been studied in order to understand the impact of increased degrees of nonlinearity on system stability. Compared to the 3DLM, the 5D or 6D Lorenz model (5DLM or 6DLM) requires a larger normalized Rayleigh parameter (r) for the onset of chaos (e.g., Shen, 2014; 2015). Mathematical analysis suggests that negative nonlinear feedback associated with additional small-scale modes in the 5D or 6DLM can effectively stabilize solutions. Here, to aid understanding regarding whether nonlinear feedback can be incorporated with one or two additional (parameterized) terms, a revised 3DLM is proposed for emulating the negative nonlinear feedback resolved by the 5DLM. For chaotic solutions, the critical value of the normalized Rayleigh parameter (rc) in the revised 3DLM (~52.1) is larger than that of the 3DLM (rc~24.74); and is comparable to but larger than therc of the corresponding 5DLM (~42.9). The result suggests that the stability of the revised 3DLM is overestimated between 43 ˂ r ˂ 52 as compared to the 5DLM. For stable solutions, the revised 3DLM produces the same steady-state (equilibrium-state) solutions as those in the 5DLM, when parameters are kept the same in both models (e.g.,r = 35). The revised 3DLM is unable to accurately depict the evolution of transient solutions in both amplitudes and phases, as compared to the 5DLM, but the trend mode of its transient solution is comparable to that of the 5DLM. The trend mode is determined as the non-oscillatory component of the solution using the parallel version of the ensemble Empirical Model Decomposition (EMD) algorithm. In addition, with the revised 3DLM, the dependence of the equilibrium-state solution on the implementation of the parameterized term suggests the importance of emulating the nonlinear (horizontal and vertical) advection of temperature into the parameterized term. Characteristics of the solution (such as overestimated stability, lack of detailed evolution, and a comparable trend mode) also appear in a different revised 3DLM with parameterized terms using the 6DLM.
Introduction
In his pioneering modeling paper published in 1963, Professor  Edwards Lorenz of MIT illustrated the sensitive dependence of numerical  solutions on initial conditions (ICs) using a very elegant set of nonlinear  ordinary differential equations [1]. The  numerical phenomenon of a solution’s dependance on ICs, appearing as the  normalized Rayleigh parameter (r) exceeds a critical value ofrc, is now known as chaos  or a butterfly effect of the first kind [2]. The  equations are referred to as the (three-dimensional) Lorenz model (3DLM). Since  the theory’s introduction by Lorenz, researchers have suggested that the source  of chaos in the 3DLM is nonlinearity [3-6]. Various  researchers have inferred that (1) small-scale processes can have a huge impact  on large-scale processes (say, leading to the generation of a tornado) and (2)  increased degrees of nonlinearity may further increase the degree of chaotic  behavior. In regards to the generation of large-scale systems (e.g., a  tornado), the process is referred to as a butterfly effect of the second kind [2], while the sensitive dependence of numerical  solutions on ICs is called a butterfly effect of the first kind. However,  Pielke [4]indicated that the inferred statements  may not be accurate, and research shows that nonlinear feedbacks associated  with newly added modes can be positive or negative [2,7].  In other words, nonlinear feedbacks associated with small-scale modes  can either stabilize or destabilize solutions, consistent with view of Lorenz [8]on the role of small-scale processes: If the flap of a butterfly’s wings can be instrumental in  generating a tornado, it can equally well be instrumental in preventing a  tornado.
  The 3DLM was derived from governing equations for 2D  Rayleigh-Benard convection, which have two nonlinear advection terms,
    and
and  , here,
, here,  is the streamfunction,  and
is the streamfunction,  and  is the temperature  perturbation.. However, only the impact of the latter is included in the 3DLM.  In other words, nonlinearity in the 3DLM involves only nonlinear advection of  temperature. The nonlinear interaction of two wave modes, which is expressed by  the Jacobian term, can generate or impact a third wave mode through a downscale  (or upscale) transfer process. The third wave mode can provide feedback to the  incipient wave mode(s) via its subsequent upscale (or downscale)  transfer process. Downscale and upscale transfer processes associated with the  third mode form a nonlinear feedback loop that can be continuously extended  when new modes are continuously generated. Appendix B of Shen [2] summarizes the successive downscale and upscale  transfer processes via the Jacobian term,
is the temperature  perturbation.. However, only the impact of the latter is included in the 3DLM.  In other words, nonlinearity in the 3DLM involves only nonlinear advection of  temperature. The nonlinear interaction of two wave modes, which is expressed by  the Jacobian term, can generate or impact a third wave mode through a downscale  (or upscale) transfer process. The third wave mode can provide feedback to the  incipient wave mode(s) via its subsequent upscale (or downscale)  transfer process. Downscale and upscale transfer processes associated with the  third mode form a nonlinear feedback loop that can be continuously extended  when new modes are continuously generated. Appendix B of Shen [2] summarizes the successive downscale and upscale  transfer processes via the Jacobian term,  . Related discussions  suggest that an ideal numerical model should include an infinite number of  Fourier modes. However, practically, all available numerical models have a  finite number of modes. Thus the extension of their nonlinear feedback loop is  finite (and incomplete). As a result, mode truncation may impact the degree of  nonlinearity and related feedback. Since chaos does appear to be the result of  the inclusion of nonlinearity with a limited number of Fourier modes (i.e., a  limited degree of nonlinearity), it is important to understand the impact of  the increased degrees of nonlinearity in thermodynamic processes (i.e.,
. Related discussions  suggest that an ideal numerical model should include an infinite number of  Fourier modes. However, practically, all available numerical models have a  finite number of modes. Thus the extension of their nonlinear feedback loop is  finite (and incomplete). As a result, mode truncation may impact the degree of  nonlinearity and related feedback. Since chaos does appear to be the result of  the inclusion of nonlinearity with a limited number of Fourier modes (i.e., a  limited degree of nonlinearity), it is important to understand the impact of  the increased degrees of nonlinearity in thermodynamic processes (i.e., on a solution’s stability. To illustrate this  process, the approach, as presented here, was to derive and examine the five-  and six-dimensional Lorenz models (5DLM and 6DLM). Newly introduced “nonlinear  thermodynamic processes” involve the nonlinear interaction of existing modes  (in the 3DLM) and new modes that are associated with either dissipation terms  or a heating term. While high-dimensional Lorenz models have been derived and  examined in order to understand the impact of mode truncations on a solution’s  stability over a period of several years [9-12],efforts  have been made to discuss (i) the extension of the nonlinear feedback loop in  the 5D or 6DLM; (ii) the role of the nonlinear feedback in stabilizing or  destabilizing solutions; (iii) clarifications of the first and second kind of  butterfly effect; and (iv) the feasibility of parameterizing negative (or  positive) feedbacks into a revised 3DLM with the aim of improving system  stability without the need to use higher dimensional LMs, and while  understanding how parameterization may change time-varying solutions and the  equilibrium state solution.
 on a solution’s stability. To illustrate this  process, the approach, as presented here, was to derive and examine the five-  and six-dimensional Lorenz models (5DLM and 6DLM). Newly introduced “nonlinear  thermodynamic processes” involve the nonlinear interaction of existing modes  (in the 3DLM) and new modes that are associated with either dissipation terms  or a heating term. While high-dimensional Lorenz models have been derived and  examined in order to understand the impact of mode truncations on a solution’s  stability over a period of several years [9-12],efforts  have been made to discuss (i) the extension of the nonlinear feedback loop in  the 5D or 6DLM; (ii) the role of the nonlinear feedback in stabilizing or  destabilizing solutions; (iii) clarifications of the first and second kind of  butterfly effect; and (iv) the feasibility of parameterizing negative (or  positive) feedbacks into a revised 3DLM with the aim of improving system  stability without the need to use higher dimensional LMs, and while  understanding how parameterization may change time-varying solutions and the  equilibrium state solution.
  With the original 3DLM and 5DLM, the impact of improved  nonlinear advection (associated with additional high-wavenumber modes) on  solution stability was previously discussed [2]. Then,  the 5DLM is viewed as the 3DLM with the nonlinear feedback explicitly resolved  by two additional high wavenumber modes. The feedback includes nonlinear  advection as well as dissipative terms associated with the new modes. In this  work, an outline of how the process can be emulated in the 3D Lorenz model is  provided. In Sections 2.1 and 2.2, discussion regarding the procedures required  for parameterization of the nonlinear feedback using the 5DLM or 6DLM is  provided. Mathematical analysis for the dissipative terms is provided in  Section 2.3 and numerical methods for calculations of the solutions and  ensemble Lyapunov exponents are discussed in Section 2.4. Results are presented  in Section 3, followed by concluding remarks.
  
  
  Revised Lorenz Models and Numerical Approaches
  The revised three-dimensional Lorenz Model (3DLM) includes  two general parameterization terms (e.g.,  and
 and  ), as follows:
), as follows:
     (1)
                                                           (1) 
     (2)
                                                     (2) 
     (3)
                                                         (3) 
    here,σandr are the Prandtl number the normalized Rayleigh  number, respectively [1,2]. Note thatr is also  known as the heating parameter.(X,Y,Z)represent the amplitudes of the solutions  resolved by the Fourier modes of Lorenz [1]. In  this study, the three modes in the 3DLM are referred to as primary modes.  and
 and  represent the nonlinear feedback from  small-scale processes, derived analytically from a higher-dimensional Lorenz  model, e.g., 5DLM or 6DLM. As illustrated in Shen [2], nonlinear  terms of the 3DLM, as well as 5DLM and 6DLM, come solely from the advection of  temperature perturbations. Thus, only including additional nonlinear terms in  Eqs. 2 and 3 is justifiable. Detailed procedures regarding the choices for
 represent the nonlinear feedback from  small-scale processes, derived analytically from a higher-dimensional Lorenz  model, e.g., 5DLM or 6DLM. As illustrated in Shen [2], nonlinear  terms of the 3DLM, as well as 5DLM and 6DLM, come solely from the advection of  temperature perturbations. Thus, only including additional nonlinear terms in  Eqs. 2 and 3 is justifiable. Detailed procedures regarding the choices for  and
 and  using the 5DLM or 6DLM are provided below.
 using the 5DLM or 6DLM are provided below.
  2.1  3DLM with parameterization using the 5DLM  (3DLM-P5d)
  In the following, determination of Q1 and Q2 using the 5DLM,  which consists of the following equations [2], is  discussed:  
     (4)
                                                           (4) 
                                                                       (5)
                                                         (5) 
                                                                       (6)
                                                         (6) 
                                                                    (7)
                                                      (7) 
                                                                         (8)
                                                          (8) 
    here, both  and
 and  are constants (
 are constants ( and
 and  ) and are defined in  Shen (2014) and Shen (2015)[2,7]. As compared to
) and are defined in  Shen (2014) and Shen (2015)[2,7]. As compared to  and
 and  ,
,  and
 and  represent the amplitudes of temperature  perturbation modes that are resolved using two additional Fourier modes with  high wave-numbers [2,7]. The two modes are  referred to as secondary temperature modes. As defined in the previous studies [2,7], the term “feedback” refers to the nonlinear  processes that involve the secondary modes (i.e.,
 represent the amplitudes of temperature  perturbation modes that are resolved using two additional Fourier modes with  high wave-numbers [2,7]. The two modes are  referred to as secondary temperature modes. As defined in the previous studies [2,7], the term “feedback” refers to the nonlinear  processes that involve the secondary modes (i.e., and/or
 and/or  ). Therefore, Eqs.  (4-6) in the 5DLM can be viewed as a 3DLM with the feedback processes (i.e.,
). Therefore, Eqs.  (4-6) in the 5DLM can be viewed as a 3DLM with the feedback processes (i.e., ) that result from the  secondary modes. Physically, the term
) that result from the  secondary modes. Physically, the term  represents the nonlinear advection of  secondary temperature mode that provides feedback to the primary temperature  mode.
 represents the nonlinear advection of  secondary temperature mode that provides feedback to the primary temperature  mode.
    By comparing the revised 3DLM (i.e., Eqs. 1-3) with Eqs. (4-6) of  5DLM,  and
 and  are first obtained. In Appendix A of Shen [2],
 are first obtained. In Appendix A of Shen [2],  was shown to be responsible for conversion of  domain averaged potential energy between
 was shown to be responsible for conversion of  domain averaged potential energy between  and
 and  mode. Thus the negative nonlinear feedback of
 mode. Thus the negative nonlinear feedback of  is also associated with the
 is also associated with the  . Next, it is  beneficial to express the secondary mode (i.e.,
. Next, it is  beneficial to express the secondary mode (i.e., ) in terms of the  primary modes (i.e.,
) in terms of the  primary modes (i.e.,  ). To achieve this,
). To achieve this,  is solved by assuming a steady-state solution  for secondary modes in Eqs. (7-8), i.e.,
 is solved by assuming a steady-state solution  for secondary modes in Eqs. (7-8), i.e., and
 and  , as follows:
, as follows: 
     (9)
                                                             (9) 
                                                                    (10)
                                                     (10) 
    In Eq. (10), the nonlinear advection of secondary temperature  mode is represented by the primary modes .  With
.  With  and
 and  in Eq. 10, the revised 3DLM (Eqs. 1-3) is  referred to as the 3DLM-P5d or 3DLMP5d. Note that Eq. (10) can be simplified,  as follows: (1) When
 in Eq. 10, the revised 3DLM (Eqs. 1-3) is  referred to as the 3DLM-P5d or 3DLMP5d. Note that Eq. (10) can be simplified,  as follows: (1) When  is small and
 is small and  is positive,
 is positive,  where
 where  is a tunable parameter. This type of  parameterization with
 is a tunable parameter. This type of  parameterization with  was first included in a revised 3DLM by Shen [2], who indicated that a larger
 was first included in a revised 3DLM by Shen [2], who indicated that a larger is required for the  onset of chaos. (2) When
is required for the  onset of chaos. (2) When  is large (i.e.,
is large (i.e.,  ),
),  and is the same as the dissipative term (
 and is the same as the dissipative term ( ) in Eq. (6). Although  it is challenging to linearize the revised 3DLM that includes a complicated  nonlinear
) in Eq. (6). Although  it is challenging to linearize the revised 3DLM that includes a complicated  nonlinear  term(i.e., Eq. 10), the two simplified cases  make it feasible to linearize Eq. (3)   and to, thus, calculate Lyapunov vectors using the Gram-Schmidt  reorthonormalization procedure discussed in Section 2.4. Additionally, these  two simplified versions can be used to illustrate how changes in  parameterizations may lead to different equilibrium-state solutions, as  discussed below.
 term(i.e., Eq. 10), the two simplified cases  make it feasible to linearize Eq. (3)   and to, thus, calculate Lyapunov vectors using the Gram-Schmidt  reorthonormalization procedure discussed in Section 2.4. Additionally, these  two simplified versions can be used to illustrate how changes in  parameterizations may lead to different equilibrium-state solutions, as  discussed below.
    In Appendix A of Shen [2], domain-averaged  kinetic energy ( ) and  potential energy (
) and  potential energy ( ) are  written, as follows:
) are  written, as follows:  
     (11)
                                                             (11) 
     (12)
                                                            (12) 
    Where . By  multiplying Eqs. 1 and 2 by
. By  multiplying Eqs. 1 and 2 by  and
 and  , respectively, one  obtains:
, respectively, one  obtains:  
     (13)
                                                     (13) 
                                                             (14)
                                               (14) 
    Adding the two  questions above yields:  
     (15)
                                                       (15)             
    In Eq. (15), the  nonlinear term ( ) associated with the  primary modes is implicit and is internally responsible for energy conversion,  while the nonlinear feedback term involving the secondary modes is represented  by
) associated with the  primary modes is implicit and is internally responsible for energy conversion,  while the nonlinear feedback term involving the secondary modes is represented  by  . The  three terms on the right hand side represent energy sinks (or sources),
. The  three terms on the right hand side represent energy sinks (or sources),  and
and  . As discussed,
. As discussed,  in Eq. (10), and
 in Eq. (10), and  plays a role similar to
 plays a role similar to  , which adds negative  potential energy into the system (Eq. 12) and provides negative thermodynamic  feedback. A steady-state solution is reached when the right hand side of Eq.  (15) equals zero. The steady-state solution with
, which adds negative  potential energy into the system (Eq. 12) and provides negative thermodynamic  feedback. A steady-state solution is reached when the right hand side of Eq.  (15) equals zero. The steady-state solution with  is the critical point solution of the 3DLM (i.e.,
 is the critical point solution of the 3DLM (i.e., ). With the general  form of
). With the general  form of  in Eq. 10, a steady-state solution appears  when the primary modes (
 in Eq. 10, a steady-state solution appears  when the primary modes ( ) are replaced by the  analytical solutions of the critical points in the 5DLM (Eqs. 19a-c of Shen,  2014), written, as follows:
) are replaced by the  analytical solutions of the critical points in the 5DLM (Eqs. 19a-c of Shen,  2014), written, as follows:  
     (16a)
                                                             (16a) 
                                                                     (16b)
                                                   (16b) 
                                                                 (16c)
                                                 (16c) 
    Eq. (16) suggests that  steady-state solutions in the 3DLMP5d are the same as those of the 5DLM. Since  parameterization of nonlinear feedback is based on the assumption of  steady-state solutions for the secondary modes in the 5DLM, the result is  anticipated. As discussed earlier, the parameterized term ( ) is dominated by
) is dominated by  with
 with  when
 when  is relatively small and is dominated by
 is relatively small and is dominated by  when
 when  is relatively large. The two simplified cases  lead to the following different steady-state solutions: 1)
 is relatively large. The two simplified cases  lead to the following different steady-state solutions: 1)  and 2)
 and 2)  , respectively. Note  that
, respectively. Note  that  has the same form as  Eq. (16a) for the 3DLM, the revised 3DLMs, and the 5DLM. Therefore, by choosing  a different
has the same form as  Eq. (16a) for the 3DLM, the revised 3DLMs, and the 5DLM. Therefore, by choosing  a different  , we can change the  equilibrium-state solutions for the revised 3DLM (Eqs. 1-3) (e.g., from the  fixed-point solutions of the 3DLM, when
, we can change the  equilibrium-state solutions for the revised 3DLM (Eqs. 1-3) (e.g., from the  fixed-point solutions of the 3DLM, when  , to fixed-point  solutions of the 5DLM, when
, to fixed-point  solutions of the 5DLM, when  is described by Eq. 10). Although proper  selection of
 is described by Eq. 10). Although proper  selection of  (=1/2) in the the first simplified case may  lead to the same equilibrium-state solutions as those of the second simplified  case, their time-varying solutions are still different. In fact, when
 (=1/2) in the the first simplified case may  lead to the same equilibrium-state solutions as those of the second simplified  case, their time-varying solutions are still different. In fact, when  is small as compared to
 is small as compared to  in Eq. (10), this condition poses an upper  bound on
 in Eq. (10), this condition poses an upper  bound on  (or
 (or  ) as a result of
) as a result of  . The parameterized  term (
. The parameterized  term ( ) emulates the  nonlinear feedback associated with the nonlinear advection of temperature and  dissipative processes due to the secondary modes. Thus, any simplifications in
) emulates the  nonlinear feedback associated with the nonlinear advection of temperature and  dissipative processes due to the secondary modes. Thus, any simplifications in  indicate changes in the nonlinear advection  and/or dissipation. The above discussions suggest the dependence for both  transient and stead-state solutions on the detailed implementation of a  parameterization, including nonlinear advection and/or dissipative processes. Further  illustration with numerical results are provided in Figure  4 and discussed in Section 3.
 indicate changes in the nonlinear advection  and/or dissipation. The above discussions suggest the dependence for both  transient and stead-state solutions on the detailed implementation of a  parameterization, including nonlinear advection and/or dissipative processes. Further  illustration with numerical results are provided in Figure  4 and discussed in Section 3.
  2.2 3DLM with parameterization using the 6DLM  (3DLM-P6d)
  To emulate the nonlinear feedback associated with the  secondary modes, the above approach assumes a steady state solution for the  secondary modes and, thus, represents the secondary modes in terms of primary  modes. To further assure the validity of the approach, a test is performed with  the 6DLM. Incremental changes in the number of Fourier modes from the 3DLM, to  the 5DLM and 6DLM can help  trace the  individual and/or collective impact on solution stability. While the secondary  temperature modes ( and
 and  ) of the 5DLM, as well  as the 6DLM, introduce additional nonlinear and dissipative terms, which, in  turn, provide negative nonlinear feedback, the secondary streamfunction mode (
) of the 5DLM, as well  as the 6DLM, introduce additional nonlinear and dissipative terms, which, in  turn, provide negative nonlinear feedback, the secondary streamfunction mode ( ) of the 6DLM (Eqs. 4-5  of Shen (2015)[7]) introduces additional  nonlinear terms and adds a heating term. Therefore, these LMs were used to  examine the competing impact between an additional heating term and the  negative nonlinear feedback [7]. Research has  indicated the following: 1) negative nonlinear feedback in association with the  secondary temperature modes plays a dominant role in providing feedback for improving  the solution stability of the 6DLM; 2) the additional heating term in  association with the secondary streamfunction mode may destabilize the  solution, but its impact is much smaller than that of the negative nonlinear  feedback. Thus, the 6DLM has a comparable but slightly smaller
) of the 6DLM (Eqs. 4-5  of Shen (2015)[7]) introduces additional  nonlinear terms and adds a heating term. Therefore, these LMs were used to  examine the competing impact between an additional heating term and the  negative nonlinear feedback [7]. Research has  indicated the following: 1) negative nonlinear feedback in association with the  secondary temperature modes plays a dominant role in providing feedback for improving  the solution stability of the 6DLM; 2) the additional heating term in  association with the secondary streamfunction mode may destabilize the  solution, but its impact is much smaller than that of the negative nonlinear  feedback. Thus, the 6DLM has a comparable but slightly smaller  (
 ( ) for the onset of  chaos, as compared to the 5DLM with
) for the onset of  chaos, as compared to the 5DLM with  (Table 1). The 5DLM and 6DLM collectively suggest different roles for  small-scale processes (i.e., stabilization vs. destabilization).
(Table 1). The 5DLM and 6DLM collectively suggest different roles for  small-scale processes (i.e., stabilization vs. destabilization).
    Following the aforementioned procedures in Section 2.1, the  revised 3DLM (Eqs. 1-3) is compared with the 6DLM (e.g., Eqs. 8-10 of Shen,  2015[7]) to obtain the following: 
     (17)
                                                         (17) 
                                                                           (18)
                                                          (18) 
    Using Eqs. (11-13) of Shen (2015)[7],  steady state solutions for  ,
,  and
 and  are solved and and expressed in terms of (
 are solved and and expressed in terms of ( ):
): 
     (19)
                                                    (19) 
                                                                                   (20)
                                                                (20) 
                                                                          (21)
                                                         (21) 
    Now, both  and
 and  in Eqs. (17-21) are functions of the primary  modes (
 in Eqs. (17-21) are functions of the primary  modes ( ). The revised 3DLM  (Eqs. 1-3) using Eqs. (17-21) is referred to as the 3DLM-P6d or 3DLMP6d. In  Section 2.4, we discuss numerical approaches for the calculation and analysis  of solutions in both 3DLMP5d and 3DLMP6d.
). The revised 3DLM  (Eqs. 1-3) using Eqs. (17-21) is referred to as the 3DLM-P6d or 3DLMP6d. In  Section 2.4, we discuss numerical approaches for the calculation and analysis  of solutions in both 3DLMP5d and 3DLMP6d.
Dissipation vs.  Numerical Smoothing
  The above discussions emphasize the role of negative  nonlinear thermodynamic feedback in improving solution stability. The relationship  of the nonlinear feedback to the additional nonlinear terms (i.e., ) and the dissipative  term (i.e.,
) and the dissipative  term (i.e., ) was discussed in Shen  (2014) [2]. An important question to be answered  is how these processes may be  identified  in real world models such as climate models and/or weather models [13-15]. While it takes a significant effort to thoroughly  address this question, an initial attempt is made in the following discussion.  The nonlinear term,
) was discussed in Shen  (2014) [2]. An important question to be answered  is how these processes may be  identified  in real world models such as climate models and/or weather models [13-15]. While it takes a significant effort to thoroughly  address this question, an initial attempt is made in the following discussion.  The nonlinear term, , representing the  horizontal and vertical advection of temperature, is commonly included in  numerical models (explicitly or implicitly). While the dissipative term may be  physically interpreted as an eddy dissipative process, it can be numerically  linked to an averaging operator, as discussed below. For example, the  dissipative term
, representing the  horizontal and vertical advection of temperature, is commonly included in  numerical models (explicitly or implicitly). While the dissipative term may be  physically interpreted as an eddy dissipative process, it can be numerically  linked to an averaging operator, as discussed below. For example, the  dissipative term  can be simplified, as follows:
 can be simplified, as follows: 
     (22a)
                                 (22a) 
    and the rate of change in  can be approximated by
 can be approximated by 
     (22b)
                                                  (22b) 
    Here,  and
 and  represent a grid spacing and time interval,  respectively. By choosing
 represent a grid spacing and time interval,  respectively. By choosing  , we have
, we have 
     (23)
                                        (23) 
    The above, which is approximated from the linear  thermodynamic equation with the dissipative term (i.e., ), qualitatively  suggests that the averaging operator plays a role numerically similar to the  Laplacian operator (
), qualitatively  suggests that the averaging operator plays a role numerically similar to the  Laplacian operator ( ) in contributing to  dissipative processes.
) in contributing to  dissipative processes.
Numerical approaches
  Using the 4th order Runge-Kutta scheme, the original and  revised Lorenz models are integrated forward in time. The value of the heating  parameter,  , is  varied, while other parameters, including
, is  varied, while other parameters, including  ,
,  , and
, and  , are held constant.  The dependence of solution’s stability on
, are held constant.  The dependence of solution’s stability on  was examined using the 3DLM, 5DLM, 6DLM and a  revised 3DLM with
 was examined using the 3DLM, 5DLM, 6DLM and a  revised 3DLM with  and
 and  [2,7]. Below, the ensemble Lyapunov exponents are first discussed  then followed by time-dependent solutions obtained from the 5DLM, 3DLMP5d, and  3DLMP6d. Numerical approaches, as discussed by Shen [2],  are also briefly summarized.
[2,7]. Below, the ensemble Lyapunov exponents are first discussed  then followed by time-dependent solutions obtained from the 5DLM, 3DLMP5d, and  3DLMP6d. Numerical approaches, as discussed by Shen [2],  are also briefly summarized.
    For the time-dependent solutions, the initial conditions are,  as follows:  
     (24)
                                            (24) 
    The dimensionless time  interval ( ) is
) is  . The  total number of time steps (
. The  total number of time steps ( ) is 500,000. To  quantitatively evaluate whether or not the system is chaotic, we calculate the  Lyapunov exponent (LE), a measure of the average separation speed of nearby  trajectories on the critical point [16-25]. In  Shen [2], the two methods implemented and tested  are the trajectory separation (TS) method [23]and  the Gram-Schmidt reorthonormalization (GSR) procedure[17,21].  Using given initial conditions (ICs) and a set of parameters in the LMs, the TS  scheme calculates the largest LE while the GSR scheme produces "n"  LEs. Here, "n" is the dimension of the 5D or 6DLM. Obtaining the n  LEs using the GSR scheme requires the derivation of the so-called variational  equation. Calculations are conducted with
) is 500,000. To  quantitatively evaluate whether or not the system is chaotic, we calculate the  Lyapunov exponent (LE), a measure of the average separation speed of nearby  trajectories on the critical point [16-25]. In  Shen [2], the two methods implemented and tested  are the trajectory separation (TS) method [23]and  the Gram-Schmidt reorthonormalization (GSR) procedure[17,21].  Using given initial conditions (ICs) and a set of parameters in the LMs, the TS  scheme calculates the largest LE while the GSR scheme produces "n"  LEs. Here, "n" is the dimension of the 5D or 6DLM. Obtaining the n  LEs using the GSR scheme requires the derivation of the so-called variational  equation. Calculations are conducted with  and
 and  , yielding
, yielding  . To minimize  dependence on the ICs, 10,000 ensemble (
. To minimize  dependence on the ICs, 10,000 ensemble ( ) runs with the same  model configurations but different ICs are performed, and an ensemble averaged  LE (eLE) is obtained from the average of the 10,000 LEs. A large
) runs with the same  model configurations but different ICs are performed, and an ensemble averaged  LE (eLE) is obtained from the average of the 10,000 LEs. A large  and
 and  are used to understand the long-term average  behavior of the solutions in the LMs. The eLEs calculations of the 3DLM, 5DLM  and 6DLM, obtained using the two methods above, were previously discussed and  compared in Shen [2,7]. A calculation of the  Kaplana & Yorke fractal dimension [26]using  the (three) leading eLEs from the GSR method was provided in Appendix A of Shen  [7], as an additional verification. The results  of the 3DLM, obtained using both methods, are presented for a comparison. Only  the TS method is applied in the 3DLMP5d and 3DLMP6d because both models  introduce complicated nonlinear terms, making it difficult to derive the  variational equation for the GSR scheme.
 are used to understand the long-term average  behavior of the solutions in the LMs. The eLEs calculations of the 3DLM, 5DLM  and 6DLM, obtained using the two methods above, were previously discussed and  compared in Shen [2,7]. A calculation of the  Kaplana & Yorke fractal dimension [26]using  the (three) leading eLEs from the GSR method was provided in Appendix A of Shen  [7], as an additional verification. The results  of the 3DLM, obtained using both methods, are presented for a comparison. Only  the TS method is applied in the 3DLMP5d and 3DLMP6d because both models  introduce complicated nonlinear terms, making it difficult to derive the  variational equation for the GSR scheme.
    For stable solutions, as shown by numerical solutions to be  discussed in Section 3, the 3DLMP5d and 3DLMP6d produce the same steady-state  solutions as those in the 5DLM and 6DLM, respectively. The result is expected  due to the assumption of the parameterization, as discussed in Sections 2.1 and  2.2. As nonlinear feedback processes are emulated with diagnostic equations in  the revised 3DLMs and as nonlinear feedback processes are resolved by  prognostic equations in the 5DLM and 6DLM, the revised 3DLMs are unable to  accurately depict the evolution of transient solutions in both phases and  amplitudes prior to the steady state, as compared to solutions in the 5DLM or  6DLM. Therefore, using a different methodology for comparing the time-varying  solutions of the revised 3DLMs and the corresponding high-dimensional LMs is  important.
    A common practice is to compare the time averaged quantities  of two fields in place of a direct point-to-point comparison. However, it is  not trivial to determine a time scale for averaging, in particular when a  solution evolves at multiple scales. Therefore, to achieve the goal of  comparing solutions from different LMs, the trend mode, defined as the  non-oscillatory component of the solution, is calculated and compared. The core  technology for this calculation is the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) [27,28]. The EMD, as first developed by Huang et al.[27], extracts a finite number (N) of the oscillatory  intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) from the local extrema of the data. The  residual, which represents the difference between the raw data and a sum of N  IMFs, is called the trend mode, which is non-oscillatory. The ensemble EMD  (EEMD) method was proposed to effectively resolve the issue of mode mixing in  the EMD [28]. Although the method is promising,  it requires tremendous computing resources, as computational resources are  linearly proportional to the number of ensemble trials. To reduce the time to  obtain solutions, we have developed a parallel version of EEMD (PEEMD) with a  three-level parallelism using message-passing interface (MPI) tasks for the  first two levels and with OpenMP threads in the third level [29-31]. The PEEMD leads to a parallel speedup of 720  using 200 eight-core processors, and is used to calculate the trend modes in  Figure 4c.
    
    
    
    
    Numerical Results
    
    Figure 1 provides  ensemble Lyapunov exponents (eLEs) as a function of the normalized Rayleigh  parameter ( ) for the 3DLM, 5DLM,  and revised 3DLMs (i.e., 3DLMP5d and 3DLMP6d). Table 1 summaries the critical value (
) for the 3DLM, 5DLM,  and revised 3DLMs (i.e., 3DLMP5d and 3DLMP6d). Table 1 summaries the critical value ( ) for the onset of  chaos in these models. As first indicated in Shen [2], the  5DLM requires a larger
) for the onset of  chaos in these models. As first indicated in Shen [2], the  5DLM requires a larger  for the onset of chaos  than the 3DLM. The critical value (
for the onset of chaos  than the 3DLM. The critical value ( ) of the 5DLM is 42.9  while the
) of the 5DLM is 42.9  while the  of the 3DLM is 24.74.  It was shown that the negative nonlinear feedback via the
of the 3DLM is 24.74.  It was shown that the negative nonlinear feedback via the  term can help suppress chaotic responses.
 term can help suppress chaotic responses.  is present in the 5DLM but not in the 3DLM.  Since the 3DLMP5d includes the impact of
 is present in the 5DLM but not in the 3DLM.  Since the 3DLMP5d includes the impact of  by assuming a steady-state solution for
 by assuming a steady-state solution for  and
 and  in Eqs. (7-8), the critical value (
 in Eqs. (7-8), the critical value ( ) is expected to be  comparable to that of the 5DLM and larger than that of the 3DLM, as shown in Figure 1 and Table 1. Interestingly, the
) is expected to be  comparable to that of the 5DLM and larger than that of the 3DLM, as shown in Figure 1 and Table 1. Interestingly, the  of the 3DLMP5d is 52.1, which is larger than  that of the 5DLM. The result suggests that the solution of 3DLMP5d is less chaotic  than that of the 5DLM, and that the transient evolution of small-scale  processes by the secondary modes, which appear associated with nonzero
 of the 3DLMP5d is 52.1, which is larger than  that of the 5DLM. The result suggests that the solution of 3DLMP5d is less chaotic  than that of the 5DLM, and that the transient evolution of small-scale  processes by the secondary modes, which appear associated with nonzero  and
 and  in the 5DLM, may destabilize the solution of  the 5DLM, as further discussed using Figure 4.
 in the 5DLM, may destabilize the solution of  the 5DLM, as further discussed using Figure 4.
      The 6DLM was derived to illustrate the competing impact of an  additional heating term and negative nonlinear feedback [7]. It was shown that the negative nonlinear feedback plays a  dominant role in providing feedback, and that the 6DLM has a comparable but  slightly smaller  (41.1) as compared to the 5DLM. The negative  nonlinear feedback and the impact of an additional heating term in the 6DLM are  emulated in the 3DLMP6d using steady-state solutions for the secondary modes.  Therefore, the 3DLMP6d with two parameterized terms is used to ensure the  validity of the nonlinear thermodynamic parameterization. In Figure 1 and Table 1, the
 (41.1) as compared to the 5DLM. The negative  nonlinear feedback and the impact of an additional heating term in the 6DLM are  emulated in the 3DLMP6d using steady-state solutions for the secondary modes.  Therefore, the 3DLMP6d with two parameterized terms is used to ensure the  validity of the nonlinear thermodynamic parameterization. In Figure 1 and Table 1, the  of the 3DLMP6d is 51.4, which is comparable,  but slightly smaller, than that of the 3DLMP5d (
 of the 3DLMP6d is 51.4, which is comparable,  but slightly smaller, than that of the 3DLMP5d ( ). Similarly, the 6DLM  has a smaller
). Similarly, the 6DLM  has a smaller  than that of the 5DLM. Figure 2 displays Y-Z plots with
 than that of the 5DLM. Figure 2 displays Y-Z plots with  from the 3DLM, 5DLM, 3DLMP5d, and 3DLMP6d,  indicating a chaotic solution for the 3DLM but stable solutions for the rest of  the LMs.
 from the 3DLM, 5DLM, 3DLMP5d, and 3DLMP6d,  indicating a chaotic solution for the 3DLM but stable solutions for the rest of  the LMs.
      To illustrate how the revised 3DLMs, as well as the 5DLM,  reach a steady-state solution with  , we analyze the terms  on the right hand side of Eq. (6), including
, we analyze the terms  on the right hand side of Eq. (6), including  ,
,  , and
, and  . Figure 3 indicates that the first two terms are  balanced with the
. Figure 3 indicates that the first two terms are  balanced with the  in order to have a steady-state solution. When  the feedback of
 in order to have a steady-state solution. When  the feedback of  is added into the 3DLMP5d, solutions for the
 is added into the 3DLMP5d, solutions for the  and
 and  (Figure 3b) are  comparable to those of the 5DLM, indicating that
 (Figure 3b) are  comparable to those of the 5DLM, indicating that  and
 and  are balanced with
 are balanced with  in the 3DLMP5d. The corresponding solutions of  the 3DLMP6 (Figure 3c) are also comparable to  those of the 5DLM and 3DLMP5, indicating the validity of the approach in  determining and emulating the nonlinear feedback using the 6DLM.
 in the 3DLMP5d. The corresponding solutions of  the 3DLMP6 (Figure 3c) are also comparable to  those of the 5DLM and 3DLMP5, indicating the validity of the approach in  determining and emulating the nonlinear feedback using the 6DLM.
      A more detailed comparison is provided in Figure 4 where the transient solutions for  and
 and  from the 5DLM, 3DLMP5 and 3DLMP6 are examined.  As indicated in panels (a)-(b), all of the solutions eventually become steady,  while the solution of the 5DLM displays a smaller decay rate. In the zoomed-in  view (Figure 4c), the oscillatory solution of  5DLM displays larger amplitudes as compared to those of the 3DLMP5 and 3DLMP6.  A comparison of the solutions obtained from the 3DLMP5d and 3DLMP6d indicates  that the latter, with an additional term (i.e.,
 from the 5DLM, 3DLMP5 and 3DLMP6 are examined.  As indicated in panels (a)-(b), all of the solutions eventually become steady,  while the solution of the 5DLM displays a smaller decay rate. In the zoomed-in  view (Figure 4c), the oscillatory solution of  5DLM displays larger amplitudes as compared to those of the 3DLMP5 and 3DLMP6.  A comparison of the solutions obtained from the 3DLMP5d and 3DLMP6d indicates  that the latter, with an additional term (i.e., ), produces a solution  with a comparable amplitude but a different phase, as compared to the former solution.  The result is consistent with that of Shen [7]in  that the positive feedback associated with the secondary streamfunction mode is  small as compared to the negative feedback largely associated with the  secondary temperature modes. To compare the evolution of different solutions,  Figure 4c displays the trend mode of the solutions at the early stage (i.e.,
), produces a solution  with a comparable amplitude but a different phase, as compared to the former solution.  The result is consistent with that of Shen [7]in  that the positive feedback associated with the secondary streamfunction mode is  small as compared to the negative feedback largely associated with the  secondary temperature modes. To compare the evolution of different solutions,  Figure 4c displays the trend mode of the solutions at the early stage (i.e., ). While transient  solutions from the revised 3DLMs with parameterizations (3DLMP5 and 3DLMP6)  produce large differences in both phases and amplitudes, their trend modes are  very close to that of the 5DLM. The result implies that the revised 3DLMs with  parameterizations, which are emulated from the feedback of secondary modes, can  produce comparable time averaged solutions as compared to the 5DLM or 6DLM, and  lead to the same steady-state solutions when
). While transient  solutions from the revised 3DLMs with parameterizations (3DLMP5 and 3DLMP6)  produce large differences in both phases and amplitudes, their trend modes are  very close to that of the 5DLM. The result implies that the revised 3DLMs with  parameterizations, which are emulated from the feedback of secondary modes, can  produce comparable time averaged solutions as compared to the 5DLM or 6DLM, and  lead to the same steady-state solutions when  is smaller than the
 is smaller than the  of the 5DLM (or 6DLM).
 of the 5DLM (or 6DLM).
      The above discussions demonstrate that nonlinear feedback (i.e.,  ) in the 5DLM can be  analytically expressed in terms of original Fourier modes within the 3DLM, and  that feedbacks can be emulated by introducing an additional term (i.e.,
) in the 5DLM can be  analytically expressed in terms of original Fourier modes within the 3DLM, and  that feedbacks can be emulated by introducing an additional term (i.e.,  ) into the 3DLM. The  term, which emulates the collective impact of the horizontal advection of  temperature perturbation and dissipations associated with the high-wavenumber  modes, can be analytically determined by solving for a steady-state solution  for the high-wavenumber modes within the high-dimensional LM (e.g., 5DLM), as  discussed in section 2.1. Using this approach, the revised 3DLM is viewed as  the 3DLM with nonlinear feedback parameterized by the additional term. This  approach is referred to as the parameterization of nonlinear thermodynamic feedback.
) into the 3DLM. The  term, which emulates the collective impact of the horizontal advection of  temperature perturbation and dissipations associated with the high-wavenumber  modes, can be analytically determined by solving for a steady-state solution  for the high-wavenumber modes within the high-dimensional LM (e.g., 5DLM), as  discussed in section 2.1. Using this approach, the revised 3DLM is viewed as  the 3DLM with nonlinear feedback parameterized by the additional term. This  approach is referred to as the parameterization of nonlinear thermodynamic feedback.
      
      
Concluding Remarks
The sensitive dependence of numerical solutions on initial  conditions (ICs), appearing in the 3DLM when the normalized Rayleigh parameter  ( ) exceeds a critical  value (
) exceeds a critical  value ( ), is known as chaos or  butterfly effect of the first kind. Although chaotic solutions are associated  with the inclusion of nonlinearity (as indicated in a comparison between the  nonlinear 3DLM and linearized 3DLM), increased degrees of nonlinearity in  higher-dimensional Lorenz models can improve system stability, since both the  5DLM and 6DLM require a larger
), is known as chaos or  butterfly effect of the first kind. Although chaotic solutions are associated  with the inclusion of nonlinearity (as indicated in a comparison between the  nonlinear 3DLM and linearized 3DLM), increased degrees of nonlinearity in  higher-dimensional Lorenz models can improve system stability, since both the  5DLM and 6DLM require a larger  for the onset of chaos [2,7] (Table 1). In this study, we proposed the revised Lorenz  model with only one parameterized term (i.e., 3DLMP5d) that can produce more stable  solutions as compared to the 3DLM. The new term is added to emulate the  nonlinear thermodynamic feedback that was first identified in the 5DLM. By  analyzing the nonlinear term,
 for the onset of chaos [2,7] (Table 1). In this study, we proposed the revised Lorenz  model with only one parameterized term (i.e., 3DLMP5d) that can produce more stable  solutions as compared to the 3DLM. The new term is added to emulate the  nonlinear thermodynamic feedback that was first identified in the 5DLM. By  analyzing the nonlinear term, , using five modes (for  the 5DLM), the negative nonlinear feedback of the secondary modes can be  mathematically represented by the
, using five modes (for  the 5DLM), the negative nonlinear feedback of the secondary modes can be  mathematically represented by the  term in Eq. (6). Using the term
 term in Eq. (6). Using the term  , we demonstrated how  to incorporate the negative nonlinear feedback into the revised 3DLM without  using additional prognostic equations, based on the following: (1) We added a  parameterized term
, we demonstrated how  to incorporate the negative nonlinear feedback into the revised 3DLM without  using additional prognostic equations, based on the following: (1) We added a  parameterized term  , which is equal to
, which is equal to  , into a revised 3DLM.  (2) We obtained steady-state solutions for the secondary modes (e.g.,
, into a revised 3DLM.  (2) We obtained steady-state solutions for the secondary modes (e.g.,  and
 and  in the 5DLM) and expressed
 in the 5DLM) and expressed  in terms of the primary modes (
 in terms of the primary modes ( ). Therefore, the  nonlinear feedback processes are emulated using diagnostic equations in the  revised 3DLMP5d, while they are explicitly resolved by prognostic equations in  the 5DLM. A different simplification of the parameterized
). Therefore, the  nonlinear feedback processes are emulated using diagnostic equations in the  revised 3DLMP5d, while they are explicitly resolved by prognostic equations in  the 5DLM. A different simplification of the parameterized  was found to lead to a different equilibrium  state solution, indicating the dependence of the equilibrium state solution  on  the changes in nonlinear advection  associated with the secondary or high-wavenumber modes. For example, the  critical point
 was found to lead to a different equilibrium  state solution, indicating the dependence of the equilibrium state solution  on  the changes in nonlinear advection  associated with the secondary or high-wavenumber modes. For example, the  critical point  in the revised 3DLM using a different
 in the revised 3DLM using a different  can be
 can be  ,
,  ,
,  , or
, or  when
 when  equals
 equals  ,
,  ,
,  , or
, or  (Eq. 10), respectively.
 (Eq. 10), respectively.
  When the 6DLM is used to emulate the nonlinear feedback, two  parameterized terms are added to a revised 3DLM using similar procedures, as  discussed in Section 2.2. The revised 3DLM, with the parameterized term(s) that  is (are) emulated using the 5DLM (6DLM), is referred as to the 3DLMP5d  (3DLMP6d). Table 1 summarizes critical values  for the onset of chaos in the 3DLMP5d, 3DLMP6d, 3DLM, 5DLM, and 6DLM. For  chaotic solutions, the  of the 3DLMP5d is
 of the 3DLMP5d is  , which is larger than  that of the 3DLM (
, which is larger than  that of the 3DLM ( ). The value is  comparable to but larger than the
). The value is  comparable to but larger than the  of the corresponding 5DLM (
 of the corresponding 5DLM ( ). Similar  characteristics are observed when comparing the 3DLMP6d and 6DLM, which yield
). Similar  characteristics are observed when comparing the 3DLMP6d and 6DLM, which yield  values of 51.4 and 41.1, respectively. The  above features suggest that the stability of the 3DMLP5d (3DLMP6d) is  overestimated between
 values of 51.4 and 41.1, respectively. The  above features suggest that the stability of the 3DMLP5d (3DLMP6d) is  overestimated between  (
 ( ), as compared to the  5DLM (or 6DLM). For stable solutions, the revised 3DLM produces the same  steady-state (equilibrium-state) solutions as those in the 5DLM (or 6DLM) when  parameters are set to be the same in the models (e.g.,
), as compared to the  5DLM (or 6DLM). For stable solutions, the revised 3DLM produces the same  steady-state (equilibrium-state) solutions as those in the 5DLM (or 6DLM) when  parameters are set to be the same in the models (e.g.,  ). Although the revised  3DLM (3DLMP5d or 3DLMP6d) is unable to accurately represent the evolution of  transient solutions in both amplitudes and phases, as compared to the 5DLM, the  trend mode of its transient solution is comparable to that of the 5DLM. The  trend mode is determined using the newly developed parallel ensemble empirical  mode decomposition (PEEMD) method. The characteristics of solutions such as  overestimated stability, lack of detailed evolution, and a comparable trend  mode are often found in the comparisons of coarse-resolution climate model and  fine-resolution climate (or weather) model simulations.
). Although the revised  3DLM (3DLMP5d or 3DLMP6d) is unable to accurately represent the evolution of  transient solutions in both amplitudes and phases, as compared to the 5DLM, the  trend mode of its transient solution is comparable to that of the 5DLM. The  trend mode is determined using the newly developed parallel ensemble empirical  mode decomposition (PEEMD) method. The characteristics of solutions such as  overestimated stability, lack of detailed evolution, and a comparable trend  mode are often found in the comparisons of coarse-resolution climate model and  fine-resolution climate (or weather) model simulations.
  This study and previous studies [2,7]  have discussed the role of negative nonlinear thermodynamic feedback in  improving solution stability and showed its relationship to the additional  nonlinear terms (i.e., ) and the dissipative  term (i.e.,
) and the dissipative  term (i.e.,  ). A nonlinear feedback  loop consists of a pair of downscale and upscale transfer processes via the  Jacobian term[2], and can be continuously  extended as long as new modes can be continuously generated. The extended  nonlinear feedback loop may further stabilize or destabilize system solutions.  The mathematical analysis provided in section 2.3 suggests that an averaging  operator may contribute to dissipative processes, which play a role numerically  similar to the Laplacian operator (
). A nonlinear feedback  loop consists of a pair of downscale and upscale transfer processes via the  Jacobian term[2], and can be continuously  extended as long as new modes can be continuously generated. The extended  nonlinear feedback loop may further stabilize or destabilize system solutions.  The mathematical analysis provided in section 2.3 suggests that an averaging  operator may contribute to dissipative processes, which play a role numerically  similar to the Laplacian operator ( ). As nonlinear  advection terms and averaging operators are often included in climate models,  we hypothesize that the nonlinear feedback of numerical averaging/smoothing may  suppress chaotic responses, leading to more stable solutions. This hypothesis  will be examined using higher-dimensional Lorenz models and climate/weather  models with the TS method in a future study. As numerical averaging may impact  the phase and amplitude of transient solutions, posing a challenge for  verifying time-varying numerical solutions against observations (or, comparing  the transient solution obtained from a low- and high-dimensional models), an  alternative method such as the PEEMD for comparing their trend modes is  required. Detailed analyses and comparisons of the different Lorenz models and  their application to climate model simulations are currently being planned.
). As nonlinear  advection terms and averaging operators are often included in climate models,  we hypothesize that the nonlinear feedback of numerical averaging/smoothing may  suppress chaotic responses, leading to more stable solutions. This hypothesis  will be examined using higher-dimensional Lorenz models and climate/weather  models with the TS method in a future study. As numerical averaging may impact  the phase and amplitude of transient solutions, posing a challenge for  verifying time-varying numerical solutions against observations (or, comparing  the transient solution obtained from a low- and high-dimensional models), an  alternative method such as the PEEMD for comparing their trend modes is  required. Detailed analyses and comparisons of the different Lorenz models and  their application to climate model simulations are currently being planned.
  
  
  Acknowledgments
  I thank Drs. R. Pielke Sr., Y.-L. Lin, R. Anthes, and X. Zeng for valuable comments and encouragement, and Dr. Y.-L. Wu for proofreading this manuscript. I am grateful for support from the College of Science at San Diego State University, the NASA Advanced Information System Technology (AIST) program of the Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO). Resources supporting this work were provided by the NASA High-End Computing (HEC) Program through the NASA Advanced Supercomputing division at Ames Research Center.
  
  
  References
	- Lorenz E (1963) Deterministic nonperiodic flow.  J Atmos Sci 20: 130-141.
- Shen BW (2014) Nonlinear Feedback in a Five-dimensional Lorenz Model.  J Atmos Sci 71: 1701-1723.
- Gleick J (1987) Chaos: Making a New Science. New York. Penguin. 360pp.
- Pielke R (2008) The Real Butterfly Effect, 477.
- Anthes R (2011) "Turning the tables on chaos: Is the atmosphere more predictable than we assume?" UCAR Magazine, spring/summer.
- Strogatz SH (2015) Nonlinear Dynamics And Chaos: With Applications To Physics, Biology, Chemistry, And Engineering.
- Shen BW (2015) Nonlinear Feedback in a Six-dimensional Lorenz Model. Impact of an additional heating term. Nonlin Processes Geophys Discuss 2: 475-512.
- Lorenz E (1972) "Predictability: does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?" Talk presented Dec. 29, AAAS Section on Environmental Sciences, New Approaches to Global Weather: GARP. Boston, Mass.
- Curry JH (1978) Generalized Lorenz Systems. Commun Math Phys 60: 193-204.
- Curry JH, Herring JR, Loncaric J, Orszag SA (1984) Order and disorder in two- and three-dimensional Benard convection.  J Fluid Mech147: 1-38.
- Musielak ZE, Musielak DE, Kennamer KS (2005) The onset of chaos in nonlinear dynamical systems determined with a new fractal technique. Fractals 13: 19-31.
- Roy D, Musielak ZE (2007a) Generalized Lorenz models and their routes to chaos. I. energy-conserving vertical mode truncations. Chaos, solitons and Fractals 32: 1038-1052.2021 Copyright OAT. All rights reserv
- Shen BW, Atlas R, Reale O, Lin SJ, Chern JD, et al. (2006) Hurricane forecasts with a global mesoscale-resolving model: preliminary results with hurricane Katrina (2005). Geophys Res Lett 33.
- Shen BW, Tao WK, Lin YL, Laing A (2012a) Genesis of Twin Tropical Cyclones as Revealed by a Global Mesoscale Model: The Role of Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves. J Geophys Res 117: D13114.
- Shen BW, DeMaria M, Li JLF, Cheung S (2013a) Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) Simulated with a Global Mesoscale Model. Geophys Res Lett 40.
- Froyland J, Alfsen KH (1984) Lyapunov-exponent spectra for the Lorenz model. Physical Review A 29: 2928-2931.
- Wolf A, Swift JB, Swinney HL, Vastano JA (1985) Determining Lyapunov Exponents from a Time Series. Physica 16D: 285-317.
- Nese JM (1989) Quantifying local predictability in phase space. Physica 35D: 237-250.
- Zeng X, Eykholt R, Pielke RA (1991) Estimating the Lyapunov-exponent spectrum from short time series of low precision. Phys Rev Lett 66: 3229-3232. [Crossref]
- Eckhardt B, Yao D (1993) Local Lyapunov exponents in chaotic systems. Physica D 65: 100-108.
- Christiansen F, Rugh H (1997) Computing Lyapunov Spectra with Continuous Gram-Schmid Orthonormalization. Nonlinearity 10: 1063-1072.
- Kazantsev E (1999) Local Lyapunov exponents of the quasi-geostrophic ocean dynamics. Applied Mathematics and Computation104: 217-257.
- Sprott JC (2003) Chaos and Time-Series Analysis. Oxford University Press. 528pp. The numerical method is briefly discussed on http://sprott.physics.wisc.edu/chaos/lyapexp.htm.
- Ding RO, Li JP (2007) Nonlinear finite-time Lyapunov exponent and predictability. Phys Lett 354A: 396-400.
- Li J, Ding R (2011) Temporal-Spatial Distribution of Atmospheric Predictability Limit by Local Dynamical Analogs. Mon Wea Rev 139: 3265-3283.
- Kaplan JL, YorkeJA (1979) Chaotic behavior of multidimensional difference equations. In: Functional differential equations and the approximations of fixed points, Peitgen HO, Walther HO (Eds.), Lect. Notes in Math. 730, Springer-Verlag, New York, 228-37.
- Huang NE, Shen Z, Long SR, Wu MC, Shih SH, et al. (1998) The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis. Proc R Soc Lond A 454: 903-995.
- Wu Z, Huang NE (2009) Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition: a noise-assisted data analysis method. Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis 1: 1-41.
- Shen BW, Wu Z, Cheung S(2012b) Analysis of Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Waves using the Parallel Ensemble Empirical Model Decomposition (EEMD) Method. AGU 2012 Fall Meeting, San Francisco, December 03-07, 2012.
- Shen BW, Cheung S, Li JLF, Wu YL (2013b) Analyzing Tropical Waves using the Parallel Ensemble Empirical Model Decomposition (PEEMD) Method: Preliminary Results with Hurricane Sandy (2012), NASA ESTO Showcase by Earthzine magazine. posted December 2, 2013.
- Cheung S, Shen BW, Mehrotra P, Li JLF (2013) Parallelization of the Ensemble Empirical Model Decomposition (PEEMD) Method on Multi- and Many-core Processors. AGU 2013 Fall Meeting, San Francisco, December 9-13.